Thursday, 26 July 2007

Apple on a serious roll

I reproduce below my very last post on Ovum Holway's Hotnews on 21st Dec 06 - a sad day as after 21 years I left the firm I had created after 21 years upon the completion of the Datamonitor acquisition. Freed from the restraints of our self imposed Independence Charter, I immediately bought Apple shares for the first time at $85. In last night's after-hours trading Apple had risen to $137 - a rise of 60% for Holway and the best performing share in Holway's Portfolio by far!

Last night Apple released Q3 results with profits up 73% at $818m and revenues up 24% at $5.41b. The iPhone contributed a minuscule $5m to these figures as only 30 hours of sales were included in the figures. Even so they shipped 270,000 iPhones in that short period and say they are on target to ship 1m by end Sept 07. Tim Cook (Apple's COO) confirmed reports that Apple targets 10m iPhone sales in 2008 with European launches "by the end of 2007".

But it was the core Mac sales which really zoomed with 1.76m units shipped - an all time record! That's up 35% on Q3 2006. Even the iPod put on a 21% increase in units shipped to 9.8m. Pundits are predicting a major iPod line up relaunch in time for Christmas sales.

Despite reading several 'critical' reviews of these results, I think they are 'stellar'. The problem with 'stellar' results - particularly when every quarter for year-upon-year is 'stellar' - is that pundits believe 'the only way is down'. I guess Apple is bound to have a fall sometime. I just happen to believe that won't be for some time. Apple is on a serious roll right now and I see only upside in each of the three main legs of the business - Mac, iPod and iPhone.

As you can see in my archive piece below, I have stuck with Apple as my 'Top Tip' for four consecutive years now. I am NOT an Apple seller and very much hope that, come Dec 07, I can add a fifth year Top Tip to this record.

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