Thursday, 21 February 2008

Don't be cruel

I think HotViews readers are developing a cruel streak. Today I was sent the following link to a piece of Forrester research which was published on 31st Jan 08. It said with confidence that Microsoft wouldn't make any big acquisitions in 2008 as "its size, visibility to antitrust bodies and strategy ruled out big deals".

On 1st Feb 08 Microsoft announced its $44.6b bid for Yahoo.

I think I'd better take care though as this is the second time in as many weeks I have criticised Forrester for getting their forecasts wrong. I better be careful for the sole reason that someone might start to look at some of my (or even Ovum's) forecasts and compare them to the actuality. As I'm certainly not "without sin", I better be careful who I throw my stones at.

Forrester Research
January 31, 2008

Microsoft Will Make Small Acquisitions
Its Size, Visibility To Antitrust Bodies, And Strategy Rule Out Big Deals

This is the fifth document in "Software Market Consolidation Trends" R "Ray" Wang, Andrew Bartels with Sharyn C. Leaver, Heidi Lo

Among the four large software vendors, Microsoft has been the least active in making significant acquisitions of midsize or large vendors, and we don't expect that to change. While Microsoft has bought many small software vendors over the years, it has made only five acquisitions of software firms with revenues greater than $150 million — with only one in the past four years. Strategically, Microsoft has focused on being a platform vendor that an ecosystem of independent software vendors (ISVs) can use to create their own software products. Microsoft's size and its scrutiny by antitrust authorities in Europe and the US also limit its ability to make large acquisitions. However, we expect Microsoft to make some acquisitions to fill in gaps in its evolving Dynamics enterprise application product.

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