Sunday, 28 September 2008

The good times coming to an end

After I had completed my Revolution or Evolution presentation last Thursday, I was waiting for the lift to whisk me to dinner on the 34th floor of the BT Tower, when the CEO of one of the very largest IT services companies operating in the UK market approached me. He whispered “You are absolutely right Richard. Something changed when people came back from their holidays at the end of August. The mood amongst our sales people and our customers has changed. Decision delays are the order of the day. We think we are in for a really tough period”.

I know that I have a reputation for being gloomy. I think that reputation is unfair as I think I’ve often not been gloomy enough! Certainly I now think that the downturn is going to be even deeper than I have been predicting in UKHotViews for the last year. As I said last Thursday, I do think that our industry gives more marks to researchers who tell them what they want to hear rather than those that tell them how it is (or is going to be) “warts and all”.

Over the course of the dinner, I revised one opinion at least. I had accused our industry of “Living in Denial”. I think they were…but not any more. That dose of reality can only be good.

However, it’s one thing telling that to your peers around a boozy dinner table where the codes of confidentiality mean that I’d never ‘name names’. It’s quite another telling it to investors in an RNS announcement. Q3 ends on Tuesday night. The day of reckoning is approaching.

Footnote – I promised a review of my Revolution or Evolution presentation on Monday. I actually posted it on Friday. Anyway, for those that missed it you can read it in pdf form by following the link Click here.

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