Tuesday, 20 January 2009

Deloitte TMT Trends for 2009

(By Richard Holway) This morning I attended the unveiling of the Deloitte TMT Trends for 2009.

Predictions are by their very nature prone to error. Mistakes are even more obvious when predictions are made for just one year. But they can make you think. To read a more detailed summary or download the complete pdf, please CLICK HERE. I'll concentrate today on the Technology Predictions.

Technology Predictions

The SmartGrid – I really turned onto this one. Deloitte reckons that the average electricity grid is 33% efficiency compared with 60% for grids using the latest technology. I’ve long believed that we could solve our water problems by mending the leaks in the pipes. It appears that most of our energy problems could be solved by SmartGrids – they basically use technology, for example to monitor networks ensuring they only pump energy when required. Great investment opportunity.

Gadgets for free – Deloitte believes that the trend of giving away gadgets in return for buying a service – so well established for set top boxes, mobile phones, broadband routers even low-end laptops – will extend to TVs (bundled with subscription) music equipment (bundled with music) and high end computers (bundled with support/cloud)

Disrupting the PC; the rise of the netbook – Well, I’ve written up that one so often on HotViews that you should have got the message by now!

Moore’s Law and risk – An interesting thesis that links the rapidly declining cost of data storage with the fact that the storage space required for sensitive data hasn’t increased at all (a bank account or social security number is the same length as 10 years ago) Meaning that keeping such data confidential is getting pretty difficult! Deloitte reckons over 1b items of personal data will go walkabout in 2009. The message is that sorting this nightmare could be big business for somebody!

The common sense of green and lean IT – Basically that it’s now pretty obvious that we should try to save energy by, for example, insisting that the PCs in our offices are switched off at night. OK, I know I should – but I still don’t.

Downsizing the digital attic – Deloitte reckons that the cost of keeping stuff in archives has got to the point where we will be forced to downsize. I completely disagree! With so much offline storage being free and Terabyte drives for less than £50, why bother to remove the clutter? Just save the lot and invest in some good index/search software.

Generic becomes the ‘it’ brand – Now I do agree with this one! I think I’d now buy almost any PC, laptop, netbook brand. Certainly that would apply to printers, storage and other peripherals. I can remember when it all had to be IBM! The only brand loyalty I currently have left is to Apple – and I hope that Jobs will get well and ensure that loyalty is worth retaining for a long time to come.

The digital ambulance chaser gets supercharged – Deloitte reckons that “2009 will be the year of the class action suits – claims for billions of dollars for copyright abuse – for media, software and other forms of content”. Personally I’ve always believed that suing your customers was a dumb idea. Much better (as Apple has done with itunes) to find an acceptable workaround which benefits all parties.

Social networks in the enterprise; Facebook for the Fortune 500 – Yet another HotViews theme that you must be bored of by now. Deloitte calls it Enterprise Social Networking (in future ECN – for the readers who complain that we use too many acronyms on HotViews) ECN to me is a ‘no-brainer’. Enterprises (that particularly includes Governments as today’s Inauguration of Barrack Obama has proved so clearly) must embrace social networking – for staff, recruitment, partners, customers etc.

Sinners become Saints – Deloitte believes that necessity means we will all start to accept – if not love – nuclear energy and GM. I have always believed in the former as the way forward but am totally against the latter.

Deloitte has a similar set of Trend 2009 Telecommunications Predictions and Media Predictions. Whether you agree or disagree, you are likely to be stimulated in the process.

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